Date: 8th April 2009 at 4:37pm
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Rovers aren`t safe yet, but games at Ewood should put us home and dry.

A few weeks ago I wrote an article entitled The Stats That Keep Big Sam Awake At Night suggesting that we faced a tough time over the next eight games. With the exception of the Liverpool game on Saturday, those games have all been played. Consequently, I thought I`d take a look over how we`ve done during those games, before looking ahead to our end of the season run in. Here are our last 7 results:

Manchester United 2 – 1 Blackburn
Hull City 1 – 2 Blackburn
Blackburn 0 – 0 Everton
Fulham 1 – 2 Blackburn
Arsenal 4 – 0 Blackburn
Blackburn 1 – 1 West Ham
Blackburn 2 – 1 Tottenham

Liverpool v Blackburn

If we lose at Anfield on Saturday – which seems likely given Liverpool`s frightening form of late – then we will have taken 11 points out of a possible 24. This represents a good haul. When I made my predictions about six weeks ago, Rovers were in dire straights despite improved form under Allardyce. I predicted 7 points as a realistic target, and 12 points as the best we could hope for. Well, with that logic 11 represents a job well done. As I suggested the league table now looks a little less ominous, with Ooijer`s late strike against Spurs has taking us up to 14th and, crucially, 5 points above Newcastle in 17th. We`ve put ourselves in a good position for the run in, but who have we got left to play? Here our last 6 games (after Liverpool):

Stoke (A), Wigan (H), Man City (A), Portsmouth (H), Chelsea (A), West Brom (H).

From this list I have identified the three home games against Wigan, Portsmouth and West Brom as ones we really should (must?) collect full points from.

Wigan`s season seems to have slowed down a bit recently, however, they will still probably be the toughest test of the three and we will have to stay sharp to take maximum points. Portsmouth have drawn 4 out of their last 6 away games but have only won away twice all season. They are in a similar position in the league to us at the moment and I think we can really use our momentum against them. The game against West Brom is another one that we really should win. However, there is a real possibility that they will already be relegated before this game and playing for pride, so we might have to be on our toes for a freak result. Hopefully, we will already be safe by then so it won`t matter too much, but I don`t see any result other than a home win here. Predicted haul: 9 points (come on Rovers!)

The away games are a much more challenging affair. First up are two teams who have relied on their home form to stay in contention this year. Both Stoke and Manchester City have stunning home form despite sporting woeful records on the road.

Man City have won their last six home games on the trot and have looked formidable at home all season. Our only chance of getting revenge on City (for their mugging of 2 points off us earlier this season) is to hope they are distracted by efforts in Europe. Stoke too have only lost 3 at home all season and have taken points off Arsenal and Liverpool at the Britannia. Any points from these two games would be a real bonus. Chelsea away is always going to be a tough game. We haven`t taken any points off the Big 4 this season and I can`t see us changing that trend at Stamford Bridge. Therefore, optimistically we might hope to snatch a draw against Stoke (sure to be one of the worst to watch games of the season) or City, but I`m not too hopefully for these fixtures. Predicted haul: 0 points (1-2 if we get some luck)

So there you have it. I`m predicting 9 points from our remaining games. It`s not a huge amount, but I think it will be enough. Even if we only win 2 of our remaining games, Newcastle will need to win 4 out of their last 7 in order to catch us up. Given the fact that they face Stoke, Tottenham, Liverpool and Villa away, I think this will be a very big ask for Shearer and the Toon Army, and that`s assuming that they win all three of their final home games (against Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Fulham).

So there you have it, let`s make sure everyone gets down to Ewood and makes sure we win those 9 points. After that we can start worrying about Carlos and Matty.



17 Replies to “Not Safe Yet, But Ewood Games Should Keep Us Safe”

  • Mikey obviously stealing all the credit for my article here 😉 Despite the horror show that was 80 minutes of last weekend’s game, I think Allardyce has done a fine job at Rovers this season and I am confident he can finish it off with a strong end to the season.

  • I just done the BBC predictor and you finish on 41 points – and safe by 3 points. Very interestingly i have WBA, Boro and Sunderland to go down with Newcastle just staying up on goal difference. Hull only just scrape to survival also. I also have Stoke suprisingly sneaking into the top half lol.

  • My predictor had Rovers finishing 13th/14th behind Stoke (or not). Hull survive by a point and Newcastle, Boro and West Brom go down. Spurs finish 11th.

  • Another storming effort this fella! Well done and a great read. I think we will go as follows (unbiased) – Liverpool (defeat), Stoke (win), Wigan (win), Man City (draw), Pompey (draw), Chelsea (defeat), West Brom (win). 11 points. Just my opinion.

  • Whoops sorry Money – I forgot to put you in the writer field!! sorry dude – for anyone reading this – THIS IS MONEY4MIDFIELD’S WORK. I have had no input in this whatsoever.

  • My predictions are Liverpool – loss; Stoke – draw; Wigan – win; City – draw; Pompey – win; Chelsea – loss; West Brom – win – 11 points, I think…should be safe on 11 points…shouldn’t we…!?

  • Youd like to think so but as Money suggested – 9 points should do the trick but I think it could go to the wire!

  • my predictions are:
    Liverpool….draw..: Stoke…. win…: Wigan….draw….: City… win: Pompey….win…: Chelsea…. draw…: Baggies…. WIN: thats a big old optimistic 15 points i think i got us there! hahaha, wouldnt it be lovely to be unbeaten for the rest of the season?

  • I thought I noticed a comment saying you have e-mailed Mikey an article (e-mail them to me dude and I’ll make sure you get the credit lol!) Really good article though dude, yeah the Ewood match SHOULD see us stay up.

  • mikey you thief, stealing a classic article here!!!!!

    Guys i did the BBC predictor i rkn we can honestly give it a good run home and finish on 45. Stoke, away, sure they have done great out there, but we are more desperate, more hungry, so im sure we can get the points, man city will be focused on europe, a point at least there, 3 home wins and a loss to chelsea and liverpool, 11 points from our remaining games, we finish on 45.

    I have sunderland, boro and brom to go down, with newcastle safe by a for and against grrr, but then again, all my results were either 1-0, 1-1 or 0-1 so hopefully newcastle get a few spankings

  • Hehe, I like the optimism among the supporters. It’s got to be a good thing! I just want to stay clear of the Sunderland, Newcastle, Hull battle for 17th. Must remember how close we came to being right down there on Saturday though. The lads need to pick themselves up and carry on with that last 10 hunger throughout the whole run in. I think they can do it, and could even see a little upset against Liverpool having watched tonight’s game (fantastic game also)…. The Axe man-marking Gerrard? I’d probably give him no more than 15 minutes before he was off. Maybe Andrews could do a good job seeing as he runs his heart out?

  • How much better the position is now than a few months ago, when things looked really gloomy for us.
    Every credit to the Club for the 3 games for £20 deal! Another winner by John Williams. Well done BRFC.
    Also Carlos and Matty… great little players both of them. Let’s hope they can make the breakthrough.
    Gael Givet? Fantastic player. Sign him up.

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